EUR/USD - Potential Downside Weakness

EUR/USD has reached a crucial support level on the weekly chart having closed at 1.2750 a low reached in March and July and a close below here could see further price weakness and move down to 1.20.

The daily chart confirms the bearish bias with the price action trading way below the 200DMA
although there are grounds for some caution as the RSI shows a bullish divergence. I would like to see a close below the 1.2750 level followed by a pullback and then some clear momentum to downside to give me a trade entry with a target of around 700 pips

Tesco Analysis

Thought i would take a look at the technical story behind Tesco, a colossal retailer that had a tough time of it lately. I have owned this share outright in the past as part of my investment portfolio but thankfully jumped ship with a small profit a while back in early 2013

Long Term - Bearish Bias. The monthly chart shoes that the strong resistance level (~290) was broken earlier in the year and we have seen further falls in price action down to 229. RSI / MACD and Stochastics are still making new lows and momentum would still seem to be with the bears. If already short, suggest keeping the position and adding on further breakouts to the downside upon any consolidation 

Medium Term - Clear downtrend in play on the weekly chart with a series of lower highs and lower lows being made since Sept 13 and the price action trading below the 50MA. Price has paused over the last 3 periods so suggest waiting to see if we have a pullback before resuming the downtrend or to look to go short with any further breaks to the downside below 220

Short Term - Bearish trend since end of 2013 when we saw the 50MA cross below the 200MA indicating that momentum is with the bears. However the price action had consolidated since gapping down late Augusts and I've noted a bullish divergence with the RSI which may indicate we are due a correction or atleast a pause in the downside momentum. If this occurs I would suggest waiting for a decisive break either way before either going short or monitoring to see whether we have a reversal or pullback before the downtrend continues. 

Price targets are difficult to determine from a technical perspective as we are in price areas last occupied in 2003. No clear trade entries at present but outlook is consistently bearish though possibly some positive retracement in the short term 

AUD/USD

One of the first currency pairs that i think will present a potential trading opportunity is the AUD/USD. This pair has been trading in a consolidation phase since April 14 but recently broke support at around 92.20 and dropped below the 200MA on the daily charge and has already gone onto fall to just above 90.00 where I expect we'll see a bit of a pause at this psychological round number area before potentially breaking out further to the downside and presenting an opportunity to jump on this trend or compound a position for those already in the trade.

I am bearish across the daily and the weekly timeframes and would like to see a strong close below 90.00 after a bit of a ouse to see us take out the lows of March/April and see a target of around 86.6 which is the low of the year so far. Any further downward price action below this level would also see a key resistance area on the monthly chart broken which would add further bearish sentiment

I am Back

It has been a while and plenty has happened since I last posted. I qualified as a Technical Analyst with the STA, changed Investment Banks, had a son and moved house twice! Anyway, a nice lengthy commute into the City should give me the time to post and I am looking to trade directional trends across all market types and use this blog to post my analysis, trading approach and to track my approach

I have most of the tools in place, my trading plan needs reviewing and my rules will be defined before I place a trade of any kind. 

I will be looking at monthly, weekly and daily timeframes and purely looking to trade in the direction of the overall trend. It has been a while since I've been actively trading though my job keeps my in touch with the markets so it shouldn't take me too long to get on top of things and the intensive study and exams I tool last year will provide me with a strong foundation 

Anyway, thats enough for now - I have some planning to do.....

Cheers

GP

An Update & Some GBP/USD & EUR/USD Observations

It has been a while but progress is still on track - working long hours but steadily advancing towards my targets. I have written my business plan with goals and objectives and mapped out a timeline for completion. Now the challenge is making sure I get there!

My strategies have now been refined and now I am looking to identify live set ups and track how these develop. At the moment i am working tirelessly throughout much of the European and London trading sessions and whilst i knew this might be an issue I am still happy to progress gradually whilst i learn and develop along the way.

GBP/USD

After yesterdays Q2 GDP announcement confirming a drop of 0.7% versus a widely anticipated -0.2% GBP saw a sell off across the board but has coming storming back today closing up 200pts on the open and now testing resistance around the 15720 level. With the overall trend on the pair still bearish I would only be looking for sell opportunities so will certainly not be buying into todays rally but will monitor closely tomorrow - could be some shorts still to be squeezed and some buyers late to the party that bid the price up through the resistance level temporarily but i'd be looking for a candle to touch the level and close below and before considering a fairly cautious short with a stop somewhere around the previous swing high of 15828 with a target of 15490 - but will see what happens

EUR/USD

Overall trendline is still down across all time parameters that i look at despite a poor day for the USD and with GDP figures expected to underwelm, USD could come under more pressure. Similar situation really with cable with some resistance around 12300/20- it will be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow - there is also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as 12314 on the daily chart and using the top of 12693 at the beginning of the month we see a 38.2% level at 12299 on the 4 hour chart- be interesting to see if we break through this or resume the downtrend back towards the lows of the last few days at the 12060 level

Can’t Run a Business without A Plan

I am currently working tirelessly to put together my Trading Plan – this is absolutely vital in giving me structure and objectives and to also look at what I can actually achieve and take on given my commitments and interests. This has highlighted some pretty clear issues – the main being that I am trying to do too much with too little time and I need to find a balance and also a means to use the time I do have in the most effective manner.

I believe 100% that it is more important for me to be able to apply my trading strategies in a consistent manner with confidence and discipline than being stuck in front of my screens for hours at a time.

I expect this planning process to take at least another week as I am making new discoveries each day that I need to consider and fully appreciate and understand

I will update with my findings over the coming days.....

Exciting Times!

P.L

S&P Observations & More Prep

Made some good progress over the weekend and have refined two of my currency strategies this evening which are now effectively ready to trade. Still  having issues with Java and IG Index compatibility so my charts are still not ready but i have been following the S&P this evening - I noticed a bearish engulfing candles form pretty much the minute i switched my computer on and thought i would set the exit and entry levels to see if 20 pips could be collected.

As you can see the price action eventually dropped to the target - but had this been a real trade I would have sctatched for break even when the bullish engulfing candle formed around the 1355 level